TREND ANALYSIS OF CLIMATIC PARAMETERS IN BANGLADESH AND THEIR PROBABLE IMPACTS ON THE PRODUCTIVITY OF THE MAJOR CROPS

Abstract

The study examines the trend of three main climatic parameters (e.g. maximum temperature, minimum temperature and rainfall) based on the analysis of historical climatic data recorded at 35 stations at seven divisions in Bangladesh for the period of 1983 to 2013. This study also assesses the relationship between the yield of three major crops e.g. rice (Aus, Aman, Boro), wheat and potato. Time series data for the 1997 to 2013 period was used at an aggregate level to assess the relationship between climatic parameters and crop yield using correlation analysis with the help of SPSS software. The findings of the study confirm that both yearly average maximum and minimum temperature for different months exhibited an overall increasing trend throughout the country except some decreasing trend during winter. Analysis of seasonal rainfall data revealed a negative correlation with time which indicates a decreasing trend of rainfall. In case of different cropping seasons such as rice growing seasons Aus, Aman, Boro and wheat and potato growing season Robi exhibited a strong increase in maximum and minimum temperature whereas rainfall found to have a decreasing trend. This study revealed that the climatic parameters have had significant effects on rice yield, but these effects vary among three rice crops. Maximum temperature had positive effects on all rice yields with statistically significant effect on Aus and Aman. Minimum temperature has a statistically significant negative effect on Aman rice and a significantly positive effect on Aus rice. Rainfall exhibited negative relation with rice yield but in case of Aman it had a statistically significant negative effect on yield. Climatic parameters had an adverse effect on wheat and potato yield, but these correlations were not statistically significant.